Ark Invest Raises Bitcoin Price Target: Looking at $2.4 million by 2030, Institutional Inflows Become Key Drivers

ARK Invest raised Bitcoin's bull market forecast price for 2030 to $2.4 million, based on an analysis of multiple sources of capital accumulation such as institutional investment, emerging market demand, and digital gold, and taking into account the impact of active supply, showing that Bitcoin plays a more critical role in financial asset allocation. (Synopsis: Cathie Wood: Meme coins will eventually be "worthless" to know the pain!) Bitcoin looks up to $1.5 million in 2030) (Background added: Cathie Wood: The market is about to bottom, and the Fed will release water into a "deflationary boom" in the second half of the year) ARK Invest, an asset management company that has long been optimistic about the development of Bitcoin, raised the bull market forecast price of Bitcoin in 2030 to $2.4 million in its latest report released yesterday (24), indicating that the optimistic view of the long-term adoption trend of Bitcoin has further escalated. This forecast is based on an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's addressable market size (TAM) and penetration, taking into account the impact of multiple sources of capital accumulation. 2030 bull market target of $2.4 million According to ARK Invest's report, the updated Bitcoin price forecast is: Pessimistic scenario: $500,000, CAGR of approximately 32% Benchmark scenario: $1.2 million, CAGR of approximately 53% Optimistic scenario: $2.4 million, CAGR approx. 72% Model basis: Six sources of capital accumulation ARK's forecasting model considers the following six main sources of capital accumulation: Institutional Investment: Projected by 2030, Institutional investors will allocate 6.5% of their assets to Bitcoin, which is almost double the current allocation to gold. Digital gold: Bitcoin, a more flexible and transparent store of value, is expected to capture about 60% of the gold market's market capitalization and contribute more than a third to bull market forecasts. Emerging market demand: Bitcoin penetration is expected to reach 6% amid the risk of inflation and currency depreciation as emerging market investors seek safe-haven assets. National reserves: This trend will further drive demand as more countries follow the lead of the U.S. and include bitcoin in their strategic reserves. Corporate financial allocation: More and more companies are including Bitcoin on their balance sheets to diversify their fiat cash reserves. On-chain financial services: Bitcoin's use in decentralized finance (DeFi) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% to 60%, making it an important source of capital accumulation. Penetration & CAGR Estimate Among them, as can be seen from the figure below, Ark Investment believes that "institutional investment" is the biggest driving force for the bull market scenario, accounting for 43.4%; Digital gold, on the other hand, dominated the bear market and benchmark scenarios, accounting for 57.8% and 48.6% respectively. Contribution of each capital accumulation source to Bitcoin's target price Supply Adjustment: Impact of Active Supply ARK's analysis specifically emphasizes Bitcoin's active supply (the denominator of the formula below), which excludes long-term unused or lost Bitcoin. This adjustment shows that the actual number of bitcoins in circulation is less than the total supply, further reinforcing the scarcity of bitcoin and putting upward pressure on the price. Ark Investments' formula for calculating bitcoin's target price Implications: BTC asset status evolves Comparing its forecast in early 2025 (about $1.5 million on a bull market), this upward revision shows that Ark Investments believes that BTC will play a more critical role in global financial asset allocation With the increase in institutional investors, national reserves, and corporate financial allocation, Bitcoin is gradually transforming from a marginal asset to a mainstream investment option. In addition, the development of decentralized finance has also provided new application scenarios for Bitcoin, further broadening its market potential. However, such long-term projections remain highly variable. The general global economic environment, interest rate policy, liquidity crunch, and even the advent of quantum computers may suppress the willingness and ability of capital to invest in Bitcoin, which in turn will affect its actual penetration rate and price performance. Despite its huge potential, Bitcoin is still heavily driven by market cycles and technologies, and investors need to carefully evaluate and flexibly monitor potential changes. Related reports The female stock god reaffirms: Bitcoin looks up to $1 million in 2030, and Trump's appointment will set off a wave of new mergers and acquisitions On-chain data academy (6): A new set of BTC magic pricing methodology with ARK participation (I) Ark Report: Stablecoin trading volume will break through $15 trillion in 2024, surpassing payment giants Visa and Mastercard 〈Ark Investment raises target price for bitcoin: $2.4 million in 2030, institutional influx becomes a key driver] This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".