How many Bitcoins are needed for early retirement in 10 years? Analysts estimate by age group.

## Estimating Bitcoin for Early Retirement

Bitcoin (BTC) researcher Sminston Wiz announced the latest guidelines for retiring by owning Bitcoin on the 1st. It should be noted that this is based on his own calculations, and it is unclear whether this will actually hold true.

We are considering various cases, and the annual necessary expenses range from 50,000 to 1,000,000 dollars (approximately 7.2 million to 140 million yen), with the current age set between 5 and 75 years.

Source: Mr. Suminston With's X post

For example, if you want to withdraw $50,000 a year, if you are currently 25 years old, you need to hold 1.26 BTC to retire in 2035, and if you want to retire in 2040, it is estimated that you need 0.83 BTC.

In addition, if you are currently 45 years old, it is estimated that you need to hold 1.14 BTC to retire in 2035, and 0.71 BTC if you plan to retire in 2040.

A Bitcoin investor who reacted to Mr. Wiz's post commented, "By 2030, it seems that just having about 4 BTC will allow me to withdraw $100,000 a year and retire. Can you imagine a 5-year-old living their whole life without ever working?"

As a premise for this calculation, Mr. Wiz mainly listed the following items.

• The future price of Bitcoin is predicted by the 5th percentile power law model (one of the models that shows how specific phenomena change over time).
• Assuming everyone dies at the age of 100
• Assuming 7% annual inflation (increase in USD supply)

Moreover, the amount of Bitcoin that one should currently hold is considered to be the minimum target amount to ensure that the BTC balance does not reach zero by the age of 100. Therefore, it was stated that each person needs to determine how much additional BTC they should hold.

Furthermore, the taxes on the capital gains from selling Bitcoin to withdraw living expenses each year are not taken into account.

Mr. Wiz has not disclosed a specific future price prediction for Bitcoin this time, but assumes that the price of Bitcoin will grow according to the power law over time, estimating its growth curve. He adopts the "5 percentile power law model," which means that there is only a 5% chance that the price will be lower than the predicted value.

As a reference, Mr. Wiz predicted last October that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 (approximately 29 million yen) by 2026. It is unclear whether he has changed this prediction since then.

Although it is different from early retirement, systems are being introduced in countries like the United States that allow individuals to accumulate cryptocurrency as retirement funds.

For example, in April, the major U.S. investment firm Fidelity Investments launched an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) that allows investment in Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Litecoin (LTC).

What is IRA?

A system similar to Japan's iDeCo (individual-type defined contribution pension) for individual retirement accounts in the United States. It offers tax advantages and includes types such as Traditional IRA and Roth IRA.

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