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Markets Now Fully Price In a September Rate Cut
CME FedWatch Tool shows investors are assigning a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the September 17 FOMC meeting.
Breakdown of market expectations:
+ 94.8% probability of a 25bps cut (target rate lowered to 4.00–4.25%)
+ 5.2% probability of a 50bps cut (target rate lowered to 3.75–4.00%)
The current target range stands at 4.25–4.50%. The market is no longer debating if the Fed will ease, but how much.
This pricing reflects growing consensus that inflation is softening and economic conditions may warrant more accommodative policy in Q4 2025.
In this context, risk assets—especially crypto and tech—could see renewed momentum in anticipation of easing financial conditions.