#美联储降息预期# Looking back at history, the Fed's interest rate cuts have often been a double-edged sword. The uncontrolled inflation of the 1970s serves as a cautionary tale. At that time, premature rate cuts led to a spiraling rise in inflation, which ultimately required a significant rate hike of over 20% to regain control. Today, JPMorgan's warning of "dangerous logic" is a wake-up call.

The current economic data is mixed, and the cooling labor market may give the Fed some confidence. However, more data needs to be observed before the September decision, especially the upcoming CPI. A premature policy shift poses too great a risk; a prudent and cautious approach is the right path.

For investors, diversified asset allocation is crucial. Alternative assets like gold and international assets are worth paying attention to. JPMorgan expects gold prices to rise to $4000 per ounce, which is a reference worth considering. Of course, any prediction should be treated with caution.

History tells us that economic cycles are always repeating. No matter how the Fed decides, staying vigilant and being well-prepared is the key to long-term success. After all, in this ever-changing market, the only constant is change itself.