Recently, many investors have expressed confusion over the significant fall of Ether. In fact, this phenomenon is closely related to the substantial adjustment in U.S. investors' expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025. The originally expected 100 basis point cut has been revised down to 50 basis points, and there are even views suggesting it may be only 25 basis points.

The core of this market fluctuation lies in the divergence between Trump and the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. When the market tends to support the aggressive rate-cutting faction represented by Trump, cryptocurrency prices often show an upward trend; conversely, if the conservative faction represented by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gains the upper hand, prices tend to fall.

Recent economic data has been unfavorable for the rate-cutting faction, but Trump's attitude towards the data has always been controversial, having previously fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics due to adjustments to employment data. It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve's decisions are not solely reliant on data. When the data does not support a rate cut, conservatives find it easier to confront Trump; even in cases of poor data performance, the Federal Reserve finds it challenging to implement rate cuts easily to avoid being seen as succumbing to political pressure. Therefore, the key lies in the level of support for both sides within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Currently, the market is waiting for the release of new economic data, which will provide important references for the future direction of monetary policy. Cryptocurrency investors should closely monitor these macroeconomic factors, as they may have a profound impact on the market.