Cb recently predicts that September is expected to start a new round of altcoin season, and has listed three core reasons: the recovery of market risk appetite, the decline in volatility of mainstream coins, and the signs of capital inflow in certain altcoin sectors. Overall, these analyses fall within the conventional framework of judgment, they have reference value, but lack critical signals.

In contrast, I am more focused on the on-chain capital flow. On August 14, the net inflow of stablecoins into exchanges reached 1.4 billion USD, marking the largest single-day inflow in the past month. The inflow of stablecoins essentially indicates an increased willingness of off-chain funds to enter the market, especially against the backdrop of low inflow levels in the previous weeks, making this data jump even more significant.
If the inflow of stablecoins can remain high over the next week, it indicates that the liquidity is continuously improving. Based on historical experience, this kind of continuous capital injection often drives a rapid increase in market risk appetite in a short period, triggering a relatively strong performance of altcoins. Especially during the phase when BTC and ETH volatility eases and the main upward momentum temporarily slows down, funds tend to flow towards altcoins with greater consensus and elasticity, forming a typical "capital overflow effect."
The two points that need to be focused on are:
1. Will the inflow of stablecoins be able to maintain an average daily amount of over 100 million USD in the next 5-7 days?
2. Concentration of capital flow - If there is a high influx accompanied by a sustained increase in some strong sectors (such as public chains and DeFi), the probability of an altcoin season being initiated will significantly increase.
If these two points can be met, then in September we may see a round of altcoin market driven by funds and amplified by sentiment.
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