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#美7月PPI年率高于预期#
PPI is higher than expected, and the market's dream of interest rate cuts may be delayed.
The US July PPI annual rate exceeded expectations, instantly cooling the market's rate cut fantasies. After all, PPI is the Producer Price Index, and being higher than expected means that production costs for businesses are still on the rise, which is not the scenario the Federal Reserve wants to see.
Originally, everyone was waiting for the "rate cut gift package" in September, but with this data coming out, Powell might have to rewrite the script to "wait and see." The reason is simple—if upstream prices continue to rise, downstream CPI will eventually be pushed up, and lowering interest rates at that time would be tantamount to fueling inflation.
What’s more embarrassing is that the driving force behind the rise in PPI is not solely the recovery of demand; the contributions of energy prices and supply chain fluctuations also play a role. This type of inflation component may not be directly reduced by interest rate hikes and could actually slow down economic recovery.
The stock market may experience some short-term disappointment, and the bond market is even more cautious. The mindset of investors at this moment might resemble passengers waiting for a flight—although they have been notified that it is on time, everyone knows that the probability of delays is increasing.