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The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has become the focus of global financial markets. Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to deliver an important speech at 10 PM on August 22, in which he will outline his views on the economic outlook and future policy framework. This speech is highly anticipated as it may reveal whether there will be a rate cut in September and the possible magnitude of the cut, which will have far-reaching effects on the Digital Money market.
The market currently widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a probability exceeding 85%. However, some voices have raised more aggressive views, suggesting a possible 50 basis point cut. This perspective partly stems from recent weak employment data. However, some analysts warn that Powell may attempt to temper market expectations for a significant rate cut during his speech.
For cryptocurrency investors, the following key indicators are worth closely following:
1. Dollar Index: If Powell's speech leans hawkish, it may lead to a stronger dollar, which could put short-term pressure on Bitcoin and other Digital Money.
2. Treasury Yield: Especially the trend of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. If the yield continues to rise, it may negatively impact non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin.
3. Market Volatility: Given the uncertainty of market expectations, investors should anticipate higher volatility. For investors participating in contract trading, establishing appropriate risk management strategies is especially important.
As this important economic event approaches, cryptocurrency market participants are closely following the developments and preparing for various possible market scenarios.