Recently, the price of Ethereum experienced a fall, hitting a low of $4192. However, hidden rebound signals are emerging in the market. With the easing of geopolitical risks and expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates in September, can Ethereum break through the turmoil in the market?

From a macro perspective, new negotiations have emerged in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although Ukrainian President Zelensky has rejected a ceasefire, he has expressed willingness to hold trilateral talks with Russian President Putin. This development has temporarily eased geopolitical tensions, and some investors have shifted their funds to safe-haven assets such as gold. However, the focus of the cryptocurrency market has turned to the upcoming Fed interest rate decision.

The Fed's policy direction has become the focus of market attention. Currently, the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a probability as high as 85%. However, the latest inflation data presents a "mixed bag" situation, and Fed Chairman Powell may maintain a cautious stance. If the rate cut comes as expected, risk assets like Ethereum may see a rebound; but if the policy falls short of expectations, there may be a risk of correction in the short term.

From a technical perspective, $4261 has become a key price level. On the daily chart, Ethereum's recent 4-hour candlestick has closed positively, indicating that selling pressure may be nearing its end. The MACD histogram remains positive, suggesting that bullish momentum is dominant. At the same time, the KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross, brewing a rebound in the oversold region.

On-chain data also shows positive signals. Large institutions like BlackRock have an ETH trust holding of 832,000 coins, while Fidelity saw a net inflow of $470 million in a single week. In addition, the Arbitrum ecosystem's daily trading volume has surpassed 120 million transactions, and the Ethereum network continues to deflate, with the amount burned exceeding the issuance, reinforcing its scarcity.

For investors, in the short term, it may be worth considering a light long position, using $4261 as a reference point and setting a stop loss at $4236. If the price breaks through $4566, consider increasing the position, with a target price of $4868. In the long term, Ethereum's technical upgrades, such as the Proto-danksharding currently being tested, will significantly enhance network performance and are expected to attract more applications.

Overall, Ethereum is at a critical juncture with the easing of geopolitical tensions and potential monetary policy easing. $4261 could become a watershed for bullish and bearish forces. Although market fluctuations are difficult to avoid in the short term, ongoing technological innovations and the influx of institutional funds provide solid support for Ethereum. Investors need to closely monitor market trends and make rational assessments of risks and opportunities.