Today, the Ethereum market witnessed a thrilling battle for funds. Large capital quietly withdrew, like pulling out the firewood; retail investors, unaware, continued to catch a falling knife, as if lifting quicksand. This situation inevitably raises concerns about the future market direction.

A detailed examination of capital flow can be quite revealing. The methods of large investors withdrawing are rather sharp:

1. Time period analysis shows that from 20:00 to 22:44, capital outflow reached 2.215 billion, while inflow was only 2.008 billion. Throughout the day, there were five instances of net outflow in seven time periods.

2. The fund distribution chart is even more intuitive: large capital outflows account for 36.7%, equivalent to 9.586 billion, with a net outflow ratio of 14.6%, approximately 736 million.

In stark contrast is the situation of retail investors:

1. The net inflow of retail investors is only $38.074 million, which is insignificant.
2. The market shows a net outflow of $698 million, suggesting that it is experiencing severe capital loss.

Trend line analysis is even more dire: the net inflow curve resembles a dying ECG — barely lifting in the morning, sliding down all afternoon, and plunging into negative territory by the end.

For the future market, there are the following points worth noting:

1. The support level of $4190 may be difficult to hold: large funds are selling an average of 700 million daily, and this level may be easily breached.
2. The situation is severe at $4,160 tonight: a sell-off of 2.2 billion at the close combined with a cliff-like drop in the funding curve may breach this defense line by dawn.
3. Beware of the "boiling frog" style decline: The current slow decline may just be a prelude, and if a sudden volume drop occurs, it could be a sign of a major drop.

Will the $4160 level ultimately become Ethereum's last line of defense, or the starting point of a new rally? Market participants need to closely monitor the movement of this critical price point.