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The latest policy meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve have attracted widespread follow. Although last month's decision to maintain the Intrerest Rate was supported by the majority of officials, there are signs that some officials' positions may be undergoing subtle changes.
It is reported that a few officials have started to hint that they may lean towards lowering the Intrerest Rate at the next meeting on September 16-17. Behind this shift in attitude is their new understanding of the impact of tariffs. These officials pointed out that the transmission speed of tariff increases to consumer prices is slower than expected, which may alleviate concerns about rising import costs triggering a new round of inflation.
However, not all officials share the same view. Some officials focused on inflation warn that price pressures have increased since last month's meeting, particularly in service prices. This divergence reflects the complexity of the Federal Reserve's internal assessment of the economic situation.
The president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, Esther George, recently expressed his views in a speech. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation is limited, partly because the Federal Reserve has maintained stable Intrerest Rates. Unlike some colleagues, George explicitly stated that he would not calculate the inflation level excluding tariffs, calling it "a concept that is both meaningless and unmeasurable."
As the September meeting approaches, the market will closely follow the remarks of Federal Reserve officials and changes in economic data. Although the likelihood of interest rate cuts seems to have increased, the Federal Reserve's final decision will still depend on a comprehensive assessment of the overall economic situation and inflation outlook. This debate about the direction of monetary policy will undoubtedly continue to be a focal point of interest for financial markets.