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As the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference approaches, the attention of the international financial community is focusing on the foothills of the Teton Mountains in Wyoming. As an important occasion for the Fed to convey policy signals, this year's meeting is particularly noteworthy, as market participants are eagerly awaiting whether Fed Chair Powell's speech will provide clues for a possible interest rate cut decision in September.
Currently, the financial market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September has surged, with traders estimating the likelihood at 80%. This expectation partially stems from Powell's remarks at the same meeting last year, when his speech guided the market's judgment on the timing of the first rate cut.
However, the focus of this meeting is not limited to the prospects of interest rate cuts. The market is also closely watching Powell's interpretation of the latest released July non-farm employment data. How this data will influence the Fed's policy decisions has become a key concern for investors.
It is worth noting that several prominent investment banks predict that Powell may adjust the Fed's policy stance in this speech. Specifically, they believe that the Fed may partially revise the flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) policy introduced in 2020, rebalancing its dual focus on employment and inflation.
This potential policy adjustment has sparked widespread discussion in the market. If realized, it will mark a more flexible approach by the Fed in addressing current economic challenges. At the same time, it reflects the need for decision-makers to constantly adjust and optimize the policy framework when faced with a complex and ever-changing economic environment.
As the date of the meeting approaches, global investors are closely monitoring every detail in hopes of gaining important clues about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. The Jackson Hole meeting will undoubtedly become a barometer for financial markets in the near future, with its impact potentially extending into the end of the year and beyond.