Goldman Sachs traders: The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September is increasing, with employment data being key.

[Golden Finance] reported that Goldman Sachs' fixed income department (FICC) traders, including Rikin Shah, stated that the market has been in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting. Powell's latest remarks have opened the door for a rate cut in September, especially against the backdrop of recent revisions to employment data that have drawn the Fed's attention to the labor market. This is a typical example of the "downside risks to the labor market" that Powell mentioned at the last FOMC press conference and reiterated in his speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting. Goldman Sachs traders believe that if August non-farm payroll growth is below 100,000, particularly in the face of political pressure, it will help determine a rate cut in September. Goldman pointed out that if the labor market continues to weaken, the window of opportunity is currently. The bank believes that whether in a slowdown or normalization scenario, the Fed is very likely to complete this round of rate cut cycle before the next Fed chair takes office, that is, before the first half of 2026.