A recent research report from Huatai Securities has attracted widespread attention. The report points out that the U.S. job market will show a significant weakening trend in the first half of 2025, and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is considered one of the important factors driving this trend.

However, in-depth analysis shows that while AI has indeed had some impact on certain industries and specific groups, it is not currently the dominant force behind the slowdown in the job market. In contrast, factors such as trade tariff policies and immigration control measures have a more direct and significant impact on the job market.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, it is expected that the U.S. job market may continue to show weakness in the third quarter. This situation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to make a decision to cut interest rates in September. However, it is worth noting that there may be some positive changes in the fourth quarter, with an improvement in companies' willingness to hire, thereby bringing a certain degree of recovery to the job market.

Despite the rapid development and widespread application of AI technology, which will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the employment market structure and macroeconomic trends, it is not yet the primary reason for the slowdown in job growth at this stage. In the future, as AI technology matures and penetrates further, its effects on the employment market will gradually become apparent, necessitating a joint response from policymakers, businesses, and workers to the challenges and opportunities presented by this long-term trend.