Reality is under siege? 305 experts predict digital life in 2035, over three adults are pessimistic

Source: The Paper

Reporter Fang Xiao

· They worry that the best knowledge will be lost or ignored in a sea of misinformation and disinformation, that institutions previously dedicated to informing the public will be further weakened, and that basic facts will be drowned out in a sea of recreational distractions, outright lies and targeted In a sea of sexual manipulation.

· They believe that digital and physical systems will continue to integrate, bringing "intelligence" to all kinds of objects and organizations, and expect individuals to have personal digital assistants to simplify their daily lives; digital tools can free people to stand up for their rights and interact with others People mobilize together to achieve the change they seek.

The Pew Research Center released a report predicting the digital life of 2035.

The Pew Research Center (Pew Research Center) released a report on June 21, inviting 305 experts to predict, with the development of artificial intelligence, what good and bad changes will happen to human digital life in 2035.

Driven by generative artificial intelligence and a host of other AI applications, experts in a new Pew Research Center survey have big expectations for digital advances in all aspects of life by 2035. They foresee dramatic improvements in healthcare and education; a world in which magical medicines are conceived and enabled in digital spaces; People, things, and information around you stay connected; AI systems can push discourse into productive, fact-based conversations; and progress will be made in environmental sustainability, climate action, and pollution prevention.

Meanwhile, the experts involved in the survey are concerned about the dark side of many developments. In addition to the risk of generative artificial intelligence exterminating humanity and introducing misinformation, they worry that digital technologies could disrupt the information environment, lead to mass unemployment, the spread of global crime, and create stress, anxiety, depression, and isolation among populations.

Most harmful or threatening changes

The report includes findings from the 16th "Future of the Internet" survey conducted by Pew Research Center and Elon University's Imagining the Internet Center to gather expert views on important digital issues . In all, 305 technology innovators and developers, business and policy leaders, researchers and activists answered questions covered in the report.

Respondents were also asked to indicate how they felt about the foreseen changes. Of these, 42% of experts said they were equally concerned and excited about the evolution of “human + technology” they expect to see by 2035; 37% of respondents said they were more worried than excited about the expected changes;18 % of respondents said they were more excited than worried about the change in expectations.

That said, some 79 percent of the experts surveyed said they were more worried than excited, or equally worried and excited, about the coming technological change. These respondents addressed several categories of concerns.

First, the future will harm the development of human-centered digital tools and systems. Experts citing this concern write that they worry that digital systems will continue to be driven by the incentives of profit in the economy and the incentives of power in politics. This can lead to data collection aimed at controlling people rather than empowering them to move freely, share ideas, and protest harm and injustice. The effects of all this, they argue, could increase inequality and damage democracy.

Second, human rights will be compromised in the future. These experts worry that new threats to rights will emerge as privacy becomes harder, if not impossible, to maintain. They see advances in surveillance, sophisticated robots embedded in civic space, the spread of deepfakes and disinformation, advanced facial recognition systems, and widening social and digital divides as imminent threats. They foresee a wider spread of crime and harassment, and new challenges to human agency and security. Most worryingly, increasingly sophisticated AI could lead to unemployment, increased poverty, and a decline in human dignity.

Third, future damage to human knowledge. They worry that the best knowledge will be lost or ignored in a sea of misinformation and disinformation, that institutions previously dedicated to informing the public will be further weakened, and that basic facts will be drowned out in a sea of recreational distractions, outright lies, and targeting In a sea of manipulation. They worry about people's cognitive decline. They argue that "reality itself is under siege" as emerging digital tools convincingly create deceptive or alternate realities. They worry that a class of "skeptics" will thwart progress.

Fourth, the future will endanger human health and well-being. Human acceptance of digital systems has already triggered high levels of anxiety and depression, some of these experts said, predicting that the situation could get worse as technology becomes more integrated into people's lives and social arrangements. Some mental and physical problems may stem from technology-induced feelings of loneliness and social isolation. Some may come from people substituting technology-based "experiences" for real-life encounters; some may arise from job losses and related social conflicts; and some may arise directly from technology-based attacks.

Fifth, the future damages relationships, governance, and institutions. Experts addressing these issues worry that norms, standards, and regulation around technology are not developing fast enough to improve the social and political interactions of individuals and organizations. Two overarching concerns: the trend towards autonomous weapons and cyber warfare, and the prospect of out-of-control digital systems. They also said the situation could get worse as the pace of technological change accelerates. They expect that people's distrust of each other may increase and confidence in institutions may worsen. In turn, this could deepen already unwelcome levels of polarization, cognitive dissonance and public withdrawal from important discourse. They also worry that digital systems are too big and important to avoid, and that all users will be held captive.

Best or Most Beneficial Variation

About 60 percent of the experts surveyed said they were more excited than worried, or equally excited and worried, about the coming technological change. These respondents talked about their reasons for excitement.

First, human-centered development of digital tools and systems is good for the future. These experts cover the range of possible digital enhancements in medicine, health, fitness and nutrition, access to information and expert advice, education in formal and informal settings, entertainment, transport and energy. They believe that digital and physical systems will continue to integrate, bringing "intelligence" to all kinds of objects and organizations, and expect individuals to have personal digital assistants to simplify everyday life.

Second, future benefits to human rights. These experts argue that digital tools can free people to stand up for their rights and mobilize with others to bring about the change they seek. They hope that continued advancements in digital tools and systems will improve people's access to resources, help them communicate and learn more effectively, and allow them to access data in ways that help lead better, safer lives. They urged that as the Internet spread to the remotest corners of the world, human rights must be upheld and upheld.

Third, the future benefit of human knowledge. These respondents expect business model innovation, local, national and global standards and regulations, and social norms to emerge. They hope to increase digital literacy to revive and elevate trusted sources of news and information in a way that captures attention and garners public interest. They hope that new digital tools and human and technical systems will be designed to ensure that factual information is properly verified, highly findable, well updated and archived.

Fourth, it is beneficial to human health and well-being. These experts anticipate that the many positive aspects of digital development will bring about a revolution in healthcare, enhancing all aspects of human health and well-being.

Fifth, for the benefit of human relations, governance, and the future effectiveness of institutions. Hopeful experts say society has the ability to adopt new digital standards and regulations that promote pro-social digital activity and minimize anti-social one. They predict that people will set new norms for their digital lives and foresee them becoming more digital in their social and political interactions. At best, they say, these changes could affect digital life, promoting human agency, security, privacy and data protection.

Attachment: Answers from some experts who accepted the survey questions

Aymar Jean Christian, associate professor of communication at Northwestern University:

“Decentralization is a promising trend in platform distribution. Web 2.0 companies have grown powerful by creating centralized platforms and amassing vast amounts of social data. The next phase of the web promises to give users more ownership and control over our How data, social interactions, and cultural goods are distributed. Decentralization of intellectual property and its distribution can provide opportunities for communities that have historically lacked opportunities to exploit their ideas. Users and grassroots organizations are already experimenting with new models of decentralized governance, with long-term implications Existing hierarchical corporate structures for innovation.

“However, the automation of story creation and distribution through AI raises clear labor equity concerns as businesses seek the cost-effectiveness of platform creative content and content moderation. or low-paid labor, many of whom are low-wage labor outsourced by U.S. companies. These sources may not represent global culture or hold ideals of equality and justice. Their automation has brought new challenges to U.S. and global culture and politics. serious risk."

Sean McGregor, founder of Responsible AI Collaborative:

"By 2035, technology will serve as a window into life's many inequalities, enabling individuals to advocate for greater participation and decision-making power that is currently entrusted to those with incomprehensible agendas and prejudices .The power of the individual will expand with communication, art, and educational capabilities never before seen in human history.However, if trends remain as they are, individuals, organizations, and Governments, will use these technologies for increasingly repressive and extractive purposes. It is vital that there is a concerted, coordinated, and dispassionate effort to increase human governance of AI systems globally."

Internet Hall of Famer David Clark, Senior Research Scientist, MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory:

“To have an optimistic view of the future, you have to imagine some underlying positives overcoming major problems: the Internet becomes more accessible and inclusive, while the proportion of the population is unserved or poorly served. much smaller; over the next decade, the characteristics of key applications such as social media will mature and stabilize, and users will become more sophisticated in dealing with risks and negative impacts; improving digital literacy can help all users to be more Well avoid the gravest dangers of the internet experience; a new generation of social media emerges that focuses less on user profiling for selling ads, less on unrestricted virality, and more on user-driven Explore and connect."