Interpreting the BTC market trend in 2025 from the perspective of data indicators and macroeconomics

Original text: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

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As we enter 2025, it is time to examine the possible situation of Bitcoin in a rational and analytical way. By combining on-chain data, market cycles, macroeconomic data, and other factors, we can go beyond pure speculation and paint a data-driven picture of the market trend for the coming months.

1. MVRV Z-Score: Huge Upside Potential

The MVRV Z-Score measures the ratio between the realized price of Bitcoin (the average purchase price of all Bitcoin in the network) and its market value. By standardizing the volatility of this ratio, we obtain the Z-Score, which historically has been able to clearly present the trend of market cycles.

Figure 1: MVRV Z-Score shows that we still have a long way to go from the market cycle peak.

Currently, the MVRV Z-Score shows that we still have significant upside potential. Although the Z-Score has exceeded 7 in previous cycles, I believe that any value above 6 signifies an overextended market, requiring a closer observation of market peaks in conjunction with other indicators. Currently, our level is similar to that of May 2017 - when the price of Bitcoin was only a few thousand dollars. Combined with historical context, from the current level, there is still potential for hundreds of percentage points of upside space.

2. PiCycle Oscillator: Watch for the resumption of price movement

Another key indicator is the PiCycle top and bottom indicators, which track the 111-day and 350-day moving averages (the latter multiplied by 2). Historical data shows that when these two moving averages cross, it usually indicates that the Bitcoin price will reach its peak within a few days.

Figure 2: Macro trend remains bullish

The distance between these two moving averages has started to rise again, indicating that the bullish momentum is recovering. Despite several periods of consolidation in 2024, the current breakout suggests that Bitcoin is entering a stronger growth phase that could last for several months.

3, exponential growth phase of the cycle

Looking at the historical price trend of Bitcoin, the cycle usually lasts 6 to 12 months in the 'cooling phase after halving,' and then enters the exponential growth phase. Based on past cycle data, we are approaching this breakthrough point. Although the return rate may decrease compared to previous cycles, we may still see significant gains.

Figure 3: Compared to previous bull market cycles, we are approaching the most bullish phase of the cycle.

As background information, after breaking through the historical high of 20,000 US dollars in the mid-2020 cycle, the price of Bitcoin reached a peak of nearly 70,000 US dollars, an increase of 3.5 times. If we see a conservative estimate of doubling or tripling from the previous peak of 70,000 US dollars, Bitcoin could actually reach 140,000 to 210,000 US dollars in this cycle.

4. The overall economic factors supporting Bitcoin's performance in 2025

Despite some obstacles in 2024, Bitcoin still shows strong performance, even in the case of a strong US dollar index (DXY). Historically, the trend of Bitcoin and DXY is usually reversed, so if there is a strong reversal of DXY, it may further promote the upward space of Bitcoin.

Figure 4: Bitcoin still rises even as the US Dollar Index rises significantly.

Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and global M2 money supply, indicate that the market environment for Bitcoin is improving. The currency supply contraction that appeared in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, laying the foundation for a more favorable market environment.

5. Cycle Main Chart: There is still a long way to go

The Bitcoin cycle master chart brings together multiple on-chain valuation indicators, showing that there is still considerable room for growth before Bitcoin reaches overvaluation. Currently, the upper limit is around $190,000, and this upper limit continues to rise, further strengthening the prospect of continued upward momentum.

Figure 5: The 'overvaluation' level of the main chart has exceeded $190,000 6, conclusion.

Currently, almost all indicators point to a bullish 2025. As usual, past performance does not guarantee future results, but the data strongly suggests that the best time for Bitcoin may still be ahead, even after an exceptionally positive performance in 2024.

(The above content is excerpted and reproduced with authorization from our partner PANews, original link | Source: Blockchain Bihu)

Disclaimer: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, not the views and positions of Gate.io. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and Gate.io will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investors.

<Interpreting the Bitcoin market trend in 2025 from the perspective of data indicators and macroeconomics> This article was first published in 'Block Times'.