The global market took a roller coaster ride last week. Just as tariffs took a breather, Trump and Powell went head-to-head on Wednesday. You criticize my slow decision-making and suggest I should step down, while I accuse you of disturbing the market and making it difficult for the Fed. Trump is applying maximum pressure, and Powell refuses to intervene in the market. A battle between the two is imminent, and the global financial market is in turmoil, with U.S. stocks plummeting and voices of recession ringing in the air.
Regarding the Powell issue, Trump can be described as quick to slide off the tracks. When asked by the media whether he would dismiss Powell, Trump firmly stated, "Absolutely not, this is all media rumor, I have no intention of firing him," completely forgetting that he had once tweeted three times in one day to criticize and threaten Powell.
In fact, apart from the improvement in macro risks, there have indeed been quite a few recent positives from within the industry.
As the crypto market warms up here, unwelcome guests are arriving again there.
Trump had a sudden inspiration and thought of the MEME coin he previously issued - Trump. Criticized for having 800,000 people on guard, Trump has taken new actions. In the early hours of April 24, the official TRUMP website suddenly announced a "world's most exclusive invitation," planning to host a banquet for the top 220 holders at Trump's golf club in Washington on May 22 this year. Among the top 25 holders, not only will they be able to attend the dinner, but they will also be invited to an exclusive reception before the dinner, where they can have dinner face-to-face with Trump. The next day, a VIP tour of the White House is even arranged, leading everyone to tour the White House.
Looking solely at the marketing strategy of dinner events, the serious Buffett is far less skilled than Trump, who employs it with great finesse. From the most recent timeline of dinner events, last September, when selling NFTs, Trump held a dinner for the first 47 holders, and his rallying cry of "Make NFTs Hot Again" led to a slight rebound in NFT interest. Excluding the crypto sector, the number of dinner events under Trump’s banner is also countless. Data shows that since 2018, Trump's campaign team has held at least 15 competitions offering chances to have breakfast, lunch, or dinner with the president, making dinner events a core means of fundraising and donations for Trump.
Of course, Trump's story can resonate, and apart from potential political donations, there is indeed a reason for the market to improve due to large buyers. Even at the beginning of this month, even a presidential declaration would likely be unable to salvage the lost liquidity. From a market perspective, despite the continuous bullish declarations, it is indeed too early to talk about a reversal. Ultimately, the external environment has not fully improved, and Trump's ever-changing policies can still trigger huge market fluctuations. Meanwhile, the world is still in a tightening cycle, and the liquidity issue has not yet been resolved. From market data, the visibly low turnover rate and the decline in implied volatility both confirm that market sentiment has only improved somewhat, rather than showing unanimous optimism.
From a long-term perspective, with the stability of tariffs and interest rate cuts, under the current circumstances where inflation is controllable and the employment rate remains strong, and the expectations of recession are still manageable, the long-term positive trend for dollar assets has not changed. However, in the short term, the market faces policy fluctuations and recession expectations, and the partial improvement of the industry environment is difficult to change the overall market direction; the key remains the economic data, as is often said.
It is worth noting that this week’s economic schedule is very busy. In addition to the non-farm payroll data from the United States, there will also be the U.S. first quarter GDP data and the PCE inflation data tool that the Federal Reserve is focusing on this Wednesday. For participants, more data means greater volatility, so proper hedging is essential.
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BTC returns to $94,000. Trump hosts the Trump banquet. Is the bull back quickly?
Under great pressure, Trump finally backed down.
The global market took a roller coaster ride last week. Just as tariffs took a breather, Trump and Powell went head-to-head on Wednesday. You criticize my slow decision-making and suggest I should step down, while I accuse you of disturbing the market and making it difficult for the Fed. Trump is applying maximum pressure, and Powell refuses to intervene in the market. A battle between the two is imminent, and the global financial market is in turmoil, with U.S. stocks plummeting and voices of recession ringing in the air.
Regarding the Powell issue, Trump can be described as quick to slide off the tracks. When asked by the media whether he would dismiss Powell, Trump firmly stated, "Absolutely not, this is all media rumor, I have no intention of firing him," completely forgetting that he had once tweeted three times in one day to criticize and threaten Powell.
In fact, apart from the improvement in macro risks, there have indeed been quite a few recent positives from within the industry.
As the crypto market warms up here, unwelcome guests are arriving again there.
Trump had a sudden inspiration and thought of the MEME coin he previously issued - Trump. Criticized for having 800,000 people on guard, Trump has taken new actions. In the early hours of April 24, the official TRUMP website suddenly announced a "world's most exclusive invitation," planning to host a banquet for the top 220 holders at Trump's golf club in Washington on May 22 this year. Among the top 25 holders, not only will they be able to attend the dinner, but they will also be invited to an exclusive reception before the dinner, where they can have dinner face-to-face with Trump. The next day, a VIP tour of the White House is even arranged, leading everyone to tour the White House.
Looking solely at the marketing strategy of dinner events, the serious Buffett is far less skilled than Trump, who employs it with great finesse. From the most recent timeline of dinner events, last September, when selling NFTs, Trump held a dinner for the first 47 holders, and his rallying cry of "Make NFTs Hot Again" led to a slight rebound in NFT interest. Excluding the crypto sector, the number of dinner events under Trump’s banner is also countless. Data shows that since 2018, Trump's campaign team has held at least 15 competitions offering chances to have breakfast, lunch, or dinner with the president, making dinner events a core means of fundraising and donations for Trump.
Of course, Trump's story can resonate, and apart from potential political donations, there is indeed a reason for the market to improve due to large buyers. Even at the beginning of this month, even a presidential declaration would likely be unable to salvage the lost liquidity. From a market perspective, despite the continuous bullish declarations, it is indeed too early to talk about a reversal. Ultimately, the external environment has not fully improved, and Trump's ever-changing policies can still trigger huge market fluctuations. Meanwhile, the world is still in a tightening cycle, and the liquidity issue has not yet been resolved. From market data, the visibly low turnover rate and the decline in implied volatility both confirm that market sentiment has only improved somewhat, rather than showing unanimous optimism.
From a long-term perspective, with the stability of tariffs and interest rate cuts, under the current circumstances where inflation is controllable and the employment rate remains strong, and the expectations of recession are still manageable, the long-term positive trend for dollar assets has not changed. However, in the short term, the market faces policy fluctuations and recession expectations, and the partial improvement of the industry environment is difficult to change the overall market direction; the key remains the economic data, as is often said.
It is worth noting that this week’s economic schedule is very busy. In addition to the non-farm payroll data from the United States, there will also be the U.S. first quarter GDP data and the PCE inflation data tool that the Federal Reserve is focusing on this Wednesday. For participants, more data means greater volatility, so proper hedging is essential.