The sentiment index on the futures market has cooled to 36% below the neutral zone. After the spikes on August 11-14, when the metric briefly moved to 70% on price jumps to 123K.

Currently, the price is holding at 115K, while the index momentum is declining: within the index composition, sellers predominate in the short-term moment (negative net-taker and volume-delta) with neutral open interest. This means the market has transitioned from euphoria at the high to a range-trading phase.

Such a profile means that while the index remains below 45-50%, bounces will likely be sold and the price tends to fluctuate in a narrow corridor. The persistence of index depression during weak bounces increases the risk of testing 112K.

The key trigger of the week is Powell's speech on Friday at Jackson Hole (Economic Outlook and Framework Review), which could set the vector for future sentiment.