What Are Perpetual Futures? A Brief Analysis Comparing ETH and BTC

Perpetual futures are one of the most widely traded derivatives in the crypto market. Unlike traditional futures, they have no expiration date, allowing investors to go long or short and profit from both rising and falling prices. Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has dominated the perpetual futures space, largely due to its status as “digital gold.”

However, in July 2025, Ethereum (ETH) perpetual futures daily trading volume surpassed that of Bitcoin for the first time, positioning ETH as the new focal point for speculative trading. This represents a fundamental shift in market speculation and capital allocation.

Glassnode Data Signals a Market Turning Point

According to the latest data from on-chain analytics platforms Glassnode and CoinStats, during the final week of July 2025:

• ETH perpetual futures trading volume reached $90.82 billion
• BTC perpetual futures trading volume stood at $82.93 billion

This marks the first time since 2022 that ETH has outpaced BTC by this metric—a rare occurrence known as “volume skew.”

Furthermore, ETH’s open interest accounted for 39.8% of the total market, significantly above its historical average. This indicates that leveraged positioning is heavily concentrated in ETH.

Why Is Capital Shifting to ETH? The Dynamics Between Institutions and Retail Traders

This is not simply a short-term trading anomaly, but a sign of structural capital flows:

There have been sustained fund inflows following Ethereum ETF approvals.

• Major players like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to purchase spot ETH ETFs
• Net inflows in July surpassed $1.1 billion, bringing the year-to-date total close to $8 billion

On-chain fund movements further support this trend.

• Over 60% of USDT on-chain transfers occurred on ETH and Tron networks
• Binance is the primary hub for trading activity

The DeFi boom accelerates ETH usage.

• The TVL for Layer 2s such as Arbitrum and Base surged during the same period
• ETH gas prices rebounded, and the number of active on-chain wallets reached a new annual high

ETH Derivatives and ETFs: Dual Engines of Growth

ETH’s market momentum goes beyond the spot market, reflecting a bullish market structure built on the synergy of “ETF + derivatives + DeFi”:

• Spot ETFs bring sustained, long-term inflows
• Perpetual futures fuel short-term leverage
• The DeFi ecosystem drives real growth in the ETH network’s value

By comparison, BTC primarily serves as a store of value, which limits speculative activity.

Price Action Analysis: Can ETH Break Past $4,000?

As of early August, ETH was trading around $3,750 and encountering strong resistance near $3,930 in the near term.

Technical outlook:

• If volume drives ETH above $4,000, it would confirm an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This would set up targets at $4,500 or even $5,200.
• If volume falls short, ETH could retest support in the $3,600 to $3,500 range.

Glassnode analysts highlight that the ETH/BTC ratio currently stands at 0.063—the highest in a year—signaling ETH’s relative strength.

Market Sentiment, On-Chain Metrics, and Short-Term Risk

It’s worth noting that while sentiment remains strong, technical overbought risks are emerging:

• ETH perpetual futures show a long-heavy positioning, raising the risk of short-term liquidations and pullbacks
• The RSI is in overbought territory, which could trigger capital outflows
• Withdrawals of ETH from exchanges like Coinbase are up, signaling profit-taking by some holders

Investors should be cautious of “false breakouts” and avoid chasing highs.

Investor Guidance and Outlook

If ETH holds above $3,600 while sustaining strong performance across ETFs, DeFi, and Layer 2 metrics, then:

• ETH is likely to begin a new major rally in Q4
• Other altcoins may benefit from sector rotation, with projects such as SOL, ARB, and MATIC likely to benefit

Strategic recommendations:

• Manage position sizes; closely monitor changes in the ETH/BTC volume ratio and ETF inflows
• Watch for potential signals of shifts, such as rising gas fees or decreasing Layer 2 activity