This subdued performance coincides with intensifying macroeconomic uncertainty. In Q1 2025, global trade tensions escalated, leading to a sharp rise in risk aversion. During the six months following the 2024 halving, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (FRED) averaged 317. In comparison, during the equivalent post-halving periods in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the index averaged 107, 109, and 186, respectively.

However, regulatory clarity for digital assets in the United States is gradually emerging, which could help reduce uncertainty and restore investor confidence in the crypto market in the coming months.

Despite the ongoing market uncertainty, Bitcoin’s price behavior in 2024 has undergone significant changes. Its 60-day price volatility has sharply declined—from over 200% in 2012 to barely 50% today. As Bitcoin matures, it is now more likely to deliver stable but potentially milder returns compared to earlier cycles.

Meanwhile, miner dynamics have become more nuanced. In April, Bitcoin’s network hash rate hit an all-time high, indicating intensified competition, possibly driven by an influx of new miners or the deployment of more efficient hardware. However, when the hash rate rises without a corresponding increase in Bitcoin’s price, miner profit margins get squeezed, highlighting a growing disconnect between network security and price performance.

Miners earn revenue from block rewards and transaction fees. After the 2024 halving, transaction fees briefly surged to an all-time high, largely due to the launch of the Runes protocol, which increased demand for block space by enabling the issuance of fungible tokens. However, since then, BTC miner fees have declined and have mostly remained below the block reward level (3.125 BTC).

Since the fourth halving, miner fee growth has significantly slowed. With block rewards now halved, maintaining robust on-chain transaction activity is critical to sustaining miner incentives—especially in the absence of a rapid price increase. Over the past year since the 2024 halving, total transaction fees paid slightly exceeded 8,000 BTC, compared to 37,000 BTC during the first year after the third halving.

Data Points

Record-High Trading Volume for MiCA-Compliant Stablecoins

Stablecoins regulated under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework have shown remarkable resilience amid broader market volatility, with their trading volumes growing at a faster pace than their non-compliant counterparts.

Since the beginning of 2024, the combined monthly trading volume of Circle’s USDC and EURC, Banking Circle’s EURI, and Société Générale’s EURCV has more than doubled, reaching a record $209 billion in March 2025.

Among MiCA-compliant stablecoins, USDC continues to lead in nominal trading volume. However, euro-denominated stablecoins have gained significant momentum: from January 2024 to March 2025, the monthly trading volume of euro-backed stablecoins grew by 363%, compared to just a 43% growth for dollar-backed ones.

Despite the rapid growth, retail adoption of euro stablecoins remains hampered by high transaction costs and limited liquidity. For example, Coinbase charges significantly higher fees for EURC conversions compared to USDC, potentially limiting broader usage.

ETH Staking Index: On the Horizon?

Following the tremendous success of U.S. spot BTC ETFs last year, Bitcoin dominated headlines throughout 2024. These funds even overshadowed ETH ETFs, which also attracted substantial inflows. The lack of staking functionality for ETH funds partly explains their lower level of investor interest.

This situation could change in 2025, as issuers seek to revise their previous filings with the SEC. And it’s not just ETH that stands to benefit—a variety of proof-of-stake (PoS) assets are vying for ETF approvals, many of which offer staking rewards much higher than ETH.

In fact, SOL has consistently provided higher rewards, and the first spot products featuring staking rewards for SOL were launched in Canada last week. Demand for these funds has been healthy, with Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest purchasing shares of 3iQ’s SOLQ ETF, whose assets under management are nearing 100 million Canadian dollars.

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