BTC Volatility Weekly Review ( April 21 - 28 )

April 28 4 PM Hong Kong Time) 94,700 dollars), ETH rose 13.2% against USD (1,590

Last week we saw the price of the coin cleanly and quickly break through the key resistance level of 89-91 thousand dollars, in line with the 100-day moving average (, faster than our initial expectations (and it seems to exceed market expectations as well). Currently, we expect the price to take a slight breather and consolidate in the comfortable range of 92-99 thousand dollars, especially considering that Labor Day and local holidays in Asia are approaching. In the coming weeks, we anticipate the market will begin to attempt to break through the 100 thousand dollar resistance level, but before that, it indeed needs to penetrate a lot of sell orders. If it falls below 89 thousand dollars, the price may retrace back to the 82-89 thousand dollar range, but we expect strong buying support in the 91-89 thousand dollar range. In the medium term, we still maintain a bullish outlook and expect to reach new highs in the next few quarters, with a target price range of 115-125 thousand dollars. After breaking through the key resistance level, the current price trend looks clearer. Market Theme Risk assets have performed well this week. Trump and Bessant have relented on the U.S.-China tariffs, suggesting that they are too tough (China refuses to comply with the "sky-high treaty" offered), while Trump has denied reports that he will remove Powell from the Fed chair in the short term. Although the reasons for Trump's change of attitude are difficult to determine, it does not seem to be a coincidence that the timing of the change occurred when his approval ratings fell to a post-presidency low. It also confirms that Trump is still influenced by his voter base and does not want to push the US economy into recession, especially before the midterm elections. Long-term Treasury yields quickly retreated from their highs, equities regained their footing, and the S&P returned to 5, 500 – even after a scuffle, falling only 10% from its all-time high. After an unexpectedly long stay above 30, the VIX has finally returned to below 25 as well. For digital currencies, bitcoin's correlation with the S&P index continued to weaken, but it was still helped by risk assets, briefly breaking through $95 thousand at the end of last week. Other small coins have finally joined the rally, demonstrating a stronger correlation with risky assets. Ethereum briefly rose to $1,800 but still lacks momentum for further gains. In general, it feels like bitcoin still has quite a few obstacles before reaching $100 thousand, such as positions that were not sold in time before the last round of declines and positions that want to re-enter the market at the lower level of $75-82 thousand. Therefore, in the absence of new catalysts, we expect the price to stabilize in this range. BTC ATM implied volatility

Despite the fact that the price of the coin broke through 90,000 USD last week, implied volatility is showing a downward trend. This is because the market is simultaneously accelerating the selling of both call and put options, especially accompanied by the recovery of risk asset sentiment and the weakening correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P. On the other hand, the market expects to see a large number of sell orders before reaching 100,000 USD, so there is a willingness to sell call options to hedge spot positions when the coin price is relatively high. Meanwhile, actual volatility remains quite low; despite significant fluctuations, the price movements are very orderly, with the high-frequency actual volatility over one week basically hovering around the 30 range. The term structure remains very steep. The market is reluctant to price mid-term volatility lower. If the theory of Bitcoin as "digital gold" truly holds and breaks the correlation with the S&P, then the expectation for volatility should lean towards selling, as any pullback would trigger more buying. Currently, the pricing for volatility rolling down 3-4 points within a month to the June expiration is still on the high side. We believe that unless the market environment changes, long-term volatility should continue to compress. BTC Skewness/Kurtosis

The skew of short-term expiration dates tends to rise towards the bullish side with each increase in the coin price, but it will revert very quickly. This is mainly because the actual volatility remains at a low level when the coin price increases. The skew of longer-term expirations further reverts to the conventional levels of the past year, as the market is more confident that Bitcoin will not experience a spike in volatility like it did in the first quarter when prices fell, even if the S&P index or global stock prices decline. The peak has basically been flat this week. Given the current price range of $92,000 to $99,000, it is difficult for the price to rise due to the subdued actual volatility. However, considering the technical and psychological points outside the $88,000/$102,000 range, there is a possibility of a sharp increase in actual volatility. Wishing everyone a successful trading week!