BTC Volatility Weekly Review (November 18th-November 25th)

Key Metrics: (November 18th, 4 pm - November 25th, 4 pm Hong Kong time) 60.0), end of year 25d skewness decrease -1.0 points (5.9

The trend of pump in prices is still continuing, but the actual volatility is slowing down and momentum is gradually stagnating. These signs suggest that the highest point in the short term may be appearing (but whether we have reached the highest point or continue to break through the $100,000 price point remains to be seen). We believe that the washout will not cause a significant drop in the coin price, because there is very good support between $85,000 and $93,000, and the chaos and hype caused by MSTR will temporarily provide sufficient buy orders for the market. The trend of market prices fits well with the Elliott Wave Theory of volatility that we have been tracking. If the coin price breaks through $100,000-$104,000, it will further open up the space for the third wave of pump trend (as shown in the chart), and it means that the pump trend will continue to $130,000-$150,000, rather than the $115,000-$120,000 we currently believe. Market Themes: In the past week, the 'Trump trade' has continued. The USD has risen against other fiat currencies, and US bond yields have continued to rise. Cryptocurrencies have once again depegged from the USD. BTC tested a high of 99.8k USD but lost momentum before reaching the key psychological level of 100k USD. Other altcoins have also shown impressive gains, and ETH has finally awakened from its slumber. Scott Benson has been confirmed as Trump's Treasury Secretary, eliminating the potential bullish factor of Howard Lutnick's possible selection. Last week, MSTR announced the purchase of 55k BTC (at an average price of 97,862 USD, with a total value of 5.4 billion USD), fully utilizing funds raised from share sales and bond issuances. The impact of ETF holders rebalancing their holdings outweighed MSTR's continued purchases when the price approached its high point, resulting in a relatively balanced supply and demand in the overall market within the price range of 97-100k USD. ATM implied Volatility:

Although the price briefly surged to $100,000 this week, considering all factors, a stable short-term implied Volatility is reasonable as the actual Volatility has not significantly increased due to the active market. There is a growing demand for pump opportunities in the futures market, leading to a rise in implied Volatility for March/June. If the Spot price struggles to break through $90-100k, we expect profit-taking on short-term positions towards the end of the year, resulting in increased pressure on the short-term curve, especially with Thanksgiving and Christmas approaching. Naturally, this will steepen the term structure. Skewness/Kurtosis:

The skewness remained relatively stable this week. As the price did not break through the 100,000 mark, the market's concern about downward price correction is rising. In addition, the implied/actual fluctuation rate is difficult to increase at price highs, especially in the short term, which suppresses the correlation between price and fluctuation rate, further suppressing the skewness. In the farther part of the curve, the correlation between price and fluctuation rate is more apparent (implied fluctuation rates in March/June/September are higher at price highs), so the skewness obtains better support at the far end of the curve. With the significant rise in the actual fluctuation rate this week, the kurtosis also pumps significantly. We observed demand in the market for wing call options, especially near the 100k level. At the same time, there is also demand in the market for short-term downside strike prices, mainly to protect spot and margin. Wish everyone good luck for the coming week!