SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Final Stretch

Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, and the market Trading Volume was light, maintaining an overall sideways pattern. The U.S. stock market is poised to create history again, with 2024 set to be one of the best-performing years in history, with returns reaching double digits in 5 of the past 6 years.

Market breadth still has support, the difference in the number of new highs and new lows of stocks in 52 weeks still looks healthy, the pump trend remains intact, the Volatility Index (VIX) is trending downward, and the U.S. bond market has calmed down after Trump announced Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary, with the 10-year yield falling nearly 35 basis points from its October high.

In addition to the so-called "support for Cryptocurrency" position, Bessent is also a supporter of fiscal hawks and an independent Federal Reserve. His proposed 3-3-3 plan (reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, increasing actual GDP rise to 3%, and increasing daily energy production by 3 million barrels) has brought relief to the US fixed income market, and since his nomination, the yield curve spread has remained stable at the current level. While there are still doubts about his core views, journalists studying his early speeches found that due to the continuous accumulation by the Central Bank, he has a long-term bullish view on gold. Will this have a spillover effect on Bitcoin, especially in recent discussions about strategic reserve portfolios? At least it can be said that the next 4 years will undoubtedly be very interesting.

Traders are gearing up for a busy week as they await the release of the final non-farm payrolls report for the year. Despite concerns about rising inflation, the market still expects a possibility of a rate cut at around 65%. However, considering the strong economic conditions, the expectation of future rate cuts for 2025-2027 has dropped significantly. In terms of employment data, the market expects overall employment to rebound to around +160,000, while the unemployment rate will remain around 4.3%. Given the recent weakness in PMI surveys and high-frequency employment data, the final data may also be lower than expected, but unless there is an extremely unexpected result, the risk appetite may continue to remain positive.

The optimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market still prevails, but the focus of this week is on Ripple. Against the backdrop of the expected government withdrawal of its long-standing lawsuit, XRP soared a stunning 73%, and this significant surge helped XRP surpass USDT to become the third-ranked cryptocurrency by Market Cap. In anticipation of this development, WhaleAddress has been actively buying (and is now selling) XRP over the past month.

The current uptrend is mainly focused on Mainstream Token (excluding ETH), with BTC leading the way, while altcoins are still struggling to return to the high point of January. Although the recent success of L2 and protocol transformation in blockchain (such as Hyperliquid) still dominates the attention of the cryptocurrency market, we can see some improvement in Ethereum through the inflow of ETH ETF. Last Friday, the capital inflow exceeded 3.3 billion dollars. Will we see more secondary Mainstream Tokens driven by Rebound before the end of the year?

Nevertheless, the basic indicators of Cryptocurrency remain optimistic, and the Market Cap of Stable Coins has finally surpassed the high point of the Terra-Luna period. Stable Coins are usually the first stop for most Fiat Currency users entering the Cryptocurrency market, and a higher Market Cap (fixed price, therefore driven entirely by quantity) indicates greater mainstream participation. With more new funds being invested, will there be a faster rise in the new year? Hopefully so!